Kalshi projects Republican Byron Donalds wins Florida governor race
The gist
Prediction market Kalshi projected Republican congressman Byron Donalds would beat Democrat David Jolly in Florida's governor race.
The win keeps the governorship Republican and makes Donalds Florida's first Black governor.
How it unfolded
- Oct 17, 2025Republicans were at 92% to keep the Florida governorship on Kalshi's market.
- Aug 18, 2026Florida primary day; Donalds won the Republican primary, defeating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins by 20-plus points.
- Oct 1, 2026The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."