Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeats Texas Governor Greg Abbott, denying fourth term
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican incumbent Greg Abbott in the Texas governor's race, per WWLTV.
The result ends a Republican hold on the office dating to 1995.
Background
Greg Abbott is the Republican incumbent governor of Texas, in office since 2015 and seeking a fourth term; he is described as an ally of President Donald Trump with a hardline approach on immigration enforcement. Gina Hinojosa is a Democratic Texas state representative from Austin, in office since 2017 and a civil rights attorney. Republicans have held the Texas governor's office since 1995, after George W. Bush defeated Democratic Gov. Ann Richards, and Democrats were looking to take the governor's mansion for the first time since 1994. Abbott had won his three previous races by more than 10% margins statewide, and forecasters had rated the race Lean Republican.
How it unfolded
- Mar 3, 2026In the March 2026 primary, Gina Hinojosa won the Democratic nomination for governor with 1,285,334 votes (59%), with 100% of precincts reporting. Greg Abbott won the Republican primary with 83% of the vote over Pete "Doc" Chambers (11%).
- Oct 10, 2026 –14, 2026A Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston poll of 2,000 likely Texas voters (margin of error 2.19%) showed Abbott with a slim lead over Hinojosa.
- Oct 15, 2026 –27, 2026Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research put Abbott at +5 (52% to 47%), Emerson College had Abbott +4 (51% to 47%), and CNN/SSRS had Abbott +2 (48% to 46%).
- Oct 27, 2026 –Nov 1, 2026New York Times/Siena University and AtlasIntel polls each showed Hinojosa ahead by 2 points (48% to 47% and 49% to 48%).
- Nov 3, 2026Polls opened at 7 a.m. and closed at 7 p.m. local time, with El Paso and Hudspeth counties closing at 9 p.m. ET. Early voting results were released at 7 p.m., and as of 7:50 p.m. Hinojosa had 56% to Abbott's nearly 43% with about 38% of the estimated vote counted; the race remained uncalled.
- Nov 4, 2026WWLTV reported that Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican incumbent Greg Abbott, denying him a fourth term.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- Trinity University political science professor David Crockett said the location of uncounted votes matters when assessing either candidate's lead.
- Caution
- Trinity University assistant professor Austin Bussing cautioned that early voters may differ from Election Day voters in political preferences and motivation to turn out, and that the first returns should not be assumed to represent all voters.
- Party
- Hinojosa said it never bothered her that they doubted her, but that they doubted us, and that Abbott called to congratulate her and offered help with the transition.
Still unverified
As of 7:50 p.m. on Nov. 3, the race remained uncalled with about 38% of the estimated vote counted, and results are preliminary until certified by the Texas Secretary of State's Office.