Forecasters track late Atlantic system as quiet 2026 hurricane season nears end
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The gist
The National Hurricane Center gives a system near Bermuda up to a 40% chance of developing within seven days.
The season has produced 10 named storms and one hurricane, with only weeks left.
Background
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with most activity between August and October. The 2026 season has been very slow: only Hurricane Isaias reached hurricane strength, which forecasters attributed to a strong El Niño weather pattern. NOAA (the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) had forecast a below-average season, and Colorado State University's TC-RAMS team, which has produced Atlantic season forecasts since 1984, lowered its own outlook in July. With the season ending Nov. 30, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center is still monitoring a low-pressure area near Bermuda.
How it unfolded
- May 21, 2026NOAA releases its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, predicting a below-average number of storms.
- Jun 1, 2026The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins.
- Jul 8, 2026Colorado State University's TC-RAMS team lowers its outlook to 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane, down from 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes in April.
- Aug 6, 2026NOAA maintains its below-average forecast in its final outlook, citing a very strong El Niño expected to last through the fall; it projects seven to 13 named storms, of which two to six would become hurricanes.
- Oct 9, 2026Isaias makes landfall near Destin on Florida's Panhandle as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds, after peaking at 120 mph.
- Oct 31, 2026The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and none expected for seven days.
- Nov 3, 2026The NHC raises the chance of development for a low-pressure area south of Bermuda to 20% over two days and 40% over seven days; the season so far has 10 named storms and one hurricane.
- Nov 30, 2026The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ends.
Key terms
- El Niño
- The cooling phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, marked by below-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
- subtropical characteristics
- Features of a weather system that shares traits of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.
- Category 2 hurricane
- A hurricane ranked second of five on a scale classifying storms by sustained wind intensity.
Source: Wikipedia
Who’s saying what
- Official
- National Hurricane Center forecasters say the system near Bermuda could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week, but that development chances should end by the weekend as it moves into unfavorable conditions.
- Analysts
- AccuWeather meteorologists rate the system between the Bahamas and Bermuda a medium risk for tropical or subtropical development this week, with development expected to be gradual.