Goldman Sachs treasury yields outlook
The gist
Goldman Sachs strategists said the pieces are in place for Treasury yields to settle into a range.
The 10-year yield has fallen to about 4.87% from above 5.25% in early October.
How it unfolded
- Sep 15, 2026The 10-year US Treasury yield rises to about 5%, the highest since 2007, which Goldman Sachs Research rate strategists attribute to higher oil prices, a repricing of the Fed path, strong growth and AI investment.
- Oct 6, 202630-year Treasury yields trade around 5.7%, the highest since 2002, with Muhammad Qubbaj of Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities citing elevated energy prices and subdued institutional demand.
- Early Oct 2026The 10-year yield rises above 5.25% and the MOVE Index, a gauge of bond-market volatility, surpasses 113.
Key terms
- Treasury yields
- The interest rates paid on U.S. government bonds, which move inversely to their prices.
- MOVE Index
- Financial contracts to buy or sell the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index at a set price on a future date.
- G4 ten-year yields
- An intergovernmental forum of 19 countries plus the EU and AU addressing global economic issues through annual summits.
Source: Wikipedia