Vanguard, Fidelity retirement return forecasts
The gist
Vanguard and Fidelity both project about 5.8% annualized U.S. stock returns, roughly half the S&P 500's 10% average since 1957.
Retirement plans built on 10% assumptions may need lower withdrawal rates or bigger cash buffers.
How it unfolded
- Oct 26, 2025Vanguard forecast U.S. stocks at 3.3%–5.3% annualized over the next 10 years, with growth stocks at 1.9%–3.9% and U.S. Treasury bonds at 3.8%–4.8%.
- Jan 16, 2026Morningstar's survey noted Fidelity's assumptions use a 20-year horizon (2025–44), while Vanguard's 30-year forecasts were 4.4%–6.4% for U.S. stocks and 6.2%–8.2% for non-U.S. stocks.
- Jan 27, 2026Vanguard's 2026 outlook projected U.S. stocks at 4%–5% annualized over five to 10 years and non-U.S. equities at 4.9%–6.9% over 10 years.
Key terms
- S&P 500
- A stock market index tracking the performance of 500 large US companies listed on American exchanges.
Source: Wikipedia