NOAA forecasts strong-to-very-strong El Niño for winter 2026-27
The gist
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says a strong-to-very-strong El Niño is likely from January through March 2027.
Forecasters say it shifts odds, not guarantees, of warm or dry weather.
How it unfolded
- Oct 27, 2026The New York Times publishes an explainer on El Niño, noting this year's event is predicted to be the strongest ever recorded.
- Oct 28, 2026NOAA forecasts warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the continental U.S. with above-average precipitation in several regions.
- Oct 28, 2026NWS meteorologists forecast a warmer- and drier-than-average winter in western Montana, with average snowfall 75% to 85% of normal.