Houston ends October warm and dry, with rain chances building toward Halloween
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The gist
Houston hit the mid- to upper 80s over the weekend, with rain chances near 30% by Friday.
Forecasters say it's too early to tell whether rain reaches Halloween trick-or-treaters.
Background
The forecasts come from FOX 26 Houston meteorologists Allison Gargaro and Angie Rodriguez and from the Houston Chronicle, which covers local weather. Houston's warm, mostly cloudy pattern was described as stuck on repeat this week, with spotty rain chances possibly returning before Halloween. NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a federal agency) separately released a winter outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 that favors wetter-than-normal conditions across Southeast Texas, tied to El Niño — warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific that typically shift the jet stream south and bring more storms to Texas and the Gulf Coast.
How it unfolded
- Oct 15, 2026NOAA released its winter outlook for December 2026 through February 2027, favoring wetter-than-normal conditions across Southeast Texas.
- Oct 24, 2026Temperatures climbed to the middle to upper 80s across the Houston area on Saturday, with mostly clear skies and low humidity.
- Oct 25, 2026Highs reached the low to mid-80s across southeast Texas with passing clouds; other readings put Saturday's peaks in the middle to upper 80s.
- Oct 26, 2026Most Houston neighborhoods started the day in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with coastal temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s.
- Oct 27, 2026Tuesday brought a hit-or-miss chance of showers to Southeast Texas, with the greatest chance of rain through Wednesday mainly west of Houston.
- Nov 1, 2026Daylight saving time ends at 2 a.m., with sunsets closer to 5:30 p.m. and sunrises around 6:35 a.m.
Who’s saying what
- Expert
- FOX 26 meteorologist Allison Gargaro said the weekend looked fantastic, with dry air, minimal rain chances and highs in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday and mid 80s on Sunday.
- Caution
- Gargaro and FOX 26 forecaster Angie Rodriguez both said it is too early to nail down trick-or-treat timing, with the best storm chances looking like Friday and rain likely lingering into Saturday.
- Analysts
- The Houston Chronicle reported that the timing and effects of a possible cold front near the end of October or start of November remain uncertain.
- Official
- NOAA put the chance of a strong to very strong El Niño continuing through January–March 2027 at greater than 83%, with the outlook favoring above-average precipitation across the southern U.S. but less certainty on Houston temperatures.
Still unverified
The timing and effects of a possible cold front near the end of October or start of November remain uncertain, according to the Houston Chronicle; whether rain will reach Halloween trick-or-treaters is too early to determine, per FOX 26 forecasts; and details of the Friday rain round, including where rain is most likely and how much could fall, are still coming into focus.