National Hurricane Center tracks two Atlantic and Pacific systems as quiet season nears end
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The gist
The National Hurricane Center is watching two disturbances, with 10 named storms so far in the 2026 Atlantic season.
The Atlantic season runs through November 30, so late-forming storms can still develop.
Background
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a NOAA center based in Miami, Florida, that covers the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific basins and publishes tropical weather outlooks four times a day. The 2026 Atlantic season has been subdued, which forecasters attribute mainly to a strong El Niño (a climate pattern that raises wind shear across the Atlantic and suppresses storm development). NOAA's August update raised the chance of a below-normal season to 75% and projected seven to 13 named storms, of which two to six would become hurricanes.
How it unfolded
- Mar 24, 2026NOAA announced the NHC would roll out a new hurricane track cone map using ellipses anchored at each forecast point, covering 90% of forecast track possibilities instead of the traditional 67% forecast error, plus new storm surge alerts for Hawaii.
- Jun 17, 2026Arthur brought life-threatening flooding to parts of the southeastern United States after degenerating along the upper Texas coast, the season's heaviest toll.
- Aug 2026NOAA's updated outlook raised the chance of a below-normal season to 75% and projected seven to 13 named storms, two to six of them hurricanes.
- Sep 10, 2026By the climatological peak, the Atlantic's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (a measure of total storm strength and duration) stood at only about 4.4, roughly 7% of a typical season's total by that point.
- Oct 9, 2026Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin on Florida's Panhandle as a Category 2 storm with winds of 105 mph.
- Oct 2026Hurricane Nolo reached Category 3 strength and crossed the International Date Line in the Eastern Pacific, when the NHC issued its final advisory on the system.
- Late Oct 2026The NHC was issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Vance, producing winds near 35 mph west of Mexico's Pacific coast.
- Nov 2, 2026The NHC's main page listed no named systems in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific basins; it highlighted a Western Atlantic low likely to form northeast of the Bahamas, with a 20% chance of formation over seven days.
- Nov 2, 2026The NHC was also monitoring a Central Pacific disturbance east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, with a 20% chance in 48 hours and 70% in seven days, and said a tropical depression was likely to form in the middle to latter part of the week.
- Nov 3, 2026At its 7 a.m. outlook, the NHC said a low was likely to form south of Bermuda potentially by Wednesday, with a 10% chance in two days and 30% in seven days; the next name on the Atlantic list is Kyle.
Key terms
- National Hurricane Center
- A US National Weather Service division that tracks and predicts tropical weather systems in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific.
- named storms
- Tropical cyclones strong enough to be given a name from a predetermined list by warning centers.
- El Niño
- The cooling phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, marked by below-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
Source: Wikipedia
Who’s saying what
- Official
- NHC forecasters said the western Atlantic system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week but that development chances decrease by the weekend as it moves into unfavorable conditions.
- Official
- The NHC said a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week over the Central Pacific.
Still unverified
One social media post put the 7-day formation odds at 40% with near-zero chance in the next 48 hours, while the NHC outlook cited in news reports gave 20% over 7 days and near 0% over 48 hours.