Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. Paxton
The gist
Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in Texas Senate polls, 46%-43% to 49%-43%.
The open seat could flip a GOP stronghold, now rated a Toss Up.
How it unfolded
- Sep 8, 2026 -11, 2026ReconMR/Texas Pulse poll of 614 likely Texas voters (margin of error 4.3 points) shows Talarico leading Paxton 49%-43%.
- Sep 8, 2026 -10, 2026Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. surveys 625 Texas voters; Talarico leads Paxton 46%-43%.
- Sep 12, 2026 -14, 2026The Hill/Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters (margin of error about 3 points) finds Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%, Libertarian Ted Brown 2%, 4% undecided.