el niño weather induced mortality
The gist
A Chicago-based lab projects up to 451,000 extra heat deaths from El Nino by February 2027.
The toll falls hardest on poorer, already-hot regions with the least cooling.
How it unfolded
- Sep 23, 2026A University of Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab report projects as many as 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and the end of February 2027 attributable to El Nino.
- Sep 23, 2026The report projects about 66,800 additional deaths in Africa's Sahel, the hardest-hit area, plus 19,400 across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, 19,300 in Indonesia, 15,800 in India and 13,300 in Brazil.
- Sep 23, 2026The report says global land temperatures this El Nino could run about 1.2 Celsius higher, producing 44% more extremely hot days than a typical year, with mortality risk rising 9.1% to 10.7% per degree above the hazardous threshold.