El Niño projected to cause 450,000 deaths by February
The gist
A Climate Impact Lab report estimates 451,000 extra heat deaths from June 2026 to February 2027.
The toll concentrates in poorer countries, and the report has not yet been peer-reviewed.
How it unfolded
- Jun 2026The current El Niño starts; the report's death estimates are counted from this point.
- Sep 23, 2026The Climate Impact Lab releases a report estimating 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide from June 2026 through February 2027.
- Sep 23, 2026The report estimates 239,000 ± 11,000 additional deaths during September 2026–February 2027, including 66,800 across Sahel countries and 31,400 in Nigeria.