UIW vs Texas State matchup
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
Texas State hosts Incarnate Word on Sept. 26 as a 30.5-point favorite at UFCU Stadium.
The game is the Bobcats' last tune-up before their first Pac-12 season gets underway.
Background
Texas State is in its first season in the Pac-12 and closes its nonconference slate with this game. The Bobcats lost 59-7 at Texas in Week 1, fell 31-26 at home to UTSA, then beat North Texas 49-35. Incarnate Word is 2-1 under fourth-year coach Clint Killough, averaging 44.7 points per game, and Bobcats coach G.J. Kinne led the Cardinals to a 12-2 record and the 2022 FCS semifinals before leaving for San Marcos.
How it unfolded
- Sep 12, 2026Texas State lost at home to UTSA 31-26 at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos.
- Sep 19, 2026BetMGM listed Texas State -5000 and Incarnate Word +2000 on the moneyline, with Texas State a 30.5-point favorite and the total at 65½.
- Sep 23, 2026The spread opened at Texas State -29.5 at -110 on both sides and had not moved; the total opened at 63.5 with even juice and had not moved.
- Sep 24, 2026A prediction was published with Texas State a 29.5-point home favorite after its 49-35 win over North Texas; Incarnate Word was 2-1 after a 30-23 overtime win over Houston Christian, averaging 44.7 points per game with at least 28 points in each contest, and the projected final was Texas State 45, Incarnate Word 27.
- Sep 26, 2026Incarnate Word travels to San Marcos to face Texas State at UFCU Stadium, 6:00 PM ET kickoff on USA Network; Texas State is laying 30.5 points and the total climbed to 64.5, with Incarnate Word 2-1 and Texas State 1-2.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- Kyle Kargel (Picks and Parlays) projects Texas State 45, Incarnate Word 27, picks Incarnate Word +29.5 and the over, saying asking the Bobcats to win by 30 is a big requirement against an opponent that has scored consistently.
- Analysts
- Ramon Scott (Tonys Picks) says the Cardinals cover the points, with a baseline of roughly three touchdowns for the visitors and a script near 45-21, calling a true blowout cover far from a lock.
- Analysts
- Andrew Pistone (College Sports Wire) predicts Texas State 54, UIW 17 and picks the over 64.5, saying the result shouldn't be in question for very long.
- Analysts
- Randy Chambers (Pick Dawgz) picks the over 65.5, saying Texas State's high-powered offense should score a lot but its defense has been dreadful, so Incarnate Word should have chances to score.
Still unverified
If Texas State's receiver injuries linger, the spread number could come down. Beau Sparks and Zechariah Sample were not 100% despite playing against North Texas, and Kylen Evans left that game with a shoulder injury.