Super El Niño heat could kill 500,000 by February
The gist
A University of Chicago lab estimates El Niño heat could cause 451,000 extra deaths by February 2027.
The projected toll falls hardest on poorer, already-hot countries least able to adapt.
How it unfolded
- Sep 23, 2026The Climate Impact Lab estimates as many as 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and the end of February 2027, compared with a typical year.
- Sep 23, 2026The study projects about 15,800 heat-related deaths in India over six months, nearly half in December to February, plus about 19,400 across the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia, 19,300 in Indonesia and 13,300 in Brazil.
- Sep 23, 2026The Sahel region of Africa is expected to be hardest hit, with about 66,800 additional deaths; the lab says global land temperatures could be about 1.2C higher, producing 44 per cent more extremely hot days than usual.