Race for Congress: who's winning?
已归档 —— 这条已轮出今日牌堆，完整内容在此保留。
一句话看懂
Polls show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by about 12 points.
Democrats need net gains of four Senate and three House seats.
背景
Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the president and his party — in this case, President Donald Trump, two years into his return to Washington. The fight for Congress is playing out largely on Republican-held turf — districts and states Trump won in 2024 — but historic headwinds and a gloomy political environment for the president's party have made Democrats optimistic. Republicans gained control of the Senate in the 2024 election.
来龙去脉
- Sep 22, 2026A Marist Poll of Iowa registered voters shows Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Ashley Hinson 50% to 42% in the U.S. Senate race; on the generic congressional ballot, 50% favor the Democrat over the Republican (45%).
- Sep 23, 2026An NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll shows Democrats hold a 12-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot; 45% of voters describe their congressional vote as mostly a vote against Trump versus 24% a vote for Trump.
- Sep 23, 2026PBS News reports 53% of registered voters say they would vote for Democratic candidates if the election were today, while 41% prefer Republicans; independents favor Democrats by 25 points.
- Sep 25, 2026USA Today reports another analysis and polling average adds to predictions that Democrats can win control of at least one chamber of Congress.
- Sep 28, 2026The New York Times reports that five weeks out from the midterms, Republicans are panicking over prices and over the president; new filings show leading Republican super PACs are significantly outspending Democratic groups.
- Sep 28, 2026Silver Bulletin's generic congressional ballot average shows Democrats leading by D +6.7, or D +8.1 with a likely voter adjustment.
- recentlyNBC News reports Election Day is November 3rd, 39 days away; 35 Senate seats are up, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control; all 435 House seats are up, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take back the House.
各方怎么说
- Democrats
- Point to favorable national polling and Trump's declining approval numbers.
- Republicans
- Argue Senate math and individual state races still provide a path to maintaining at least partial control of Congress.
- Analysts
- Polling analyst Lee Miringoff said "It's everywhere in the data that these independents are looking for new ideas, change."