James Talarico news
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The gist
Democrat James Talarico leads GOP rival Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race polls, 46% to 45%. The race is a toss-up that could decide Senate control.
Background
Texas's U.S. Senate race pits Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for the seat vacated by John Cornyn, who lost his primary to Paxton. The race has tightened, with recent polls showing a dead heat, and the Cook Political Report has moved it to a toss-up. Talarico has outspent Paxton on advertising and leads among younger and Hispanic voters, while Paxton leads among older voters.
How it unfolded
- May 2026Sen. John Cornyn loses his primary runoff to Ken Paxton, setting up the general election race.
- Jul 22, 2026James Talarico holds a press conference in Austin, Texas, as the Democratic nominee.
- Aug 18, 2026A longtime Cornyn staffer, Jacob Smith, defects to work for Talarico's campaign.
- Aug 19, 2026Emerson College Polling shows Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%, a statistical tie.
- Aug 20, 2026Reports show Talarico dominates airwaves while Paxton spends little; Talarico leads in several polls.
- Aug 21, 2026Cook Political Report moves the Texas Senate race to a toss-up.
- Aug 22, 2026Paxton attacks Talarico over comments about the justice system in a murder trial.
Who’s saying what
- Polling
- Emerson College Polling shows a dead heat, with Talarico leading among voters under 50 and Hispanic voters.
- Analysts
- Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, indicating no clear favorite.
- Talarico
- Talarico's campaign highlights Paxton's ethical issues, including impeachment and a stolen pen scandal.
- Paxton
- Paxton dismisses attacks, saying voters care about what candidates have done for them.
Still unverified
Reports of possible future attack ads by MAGA Inc. against Talarico are based on a message testing poll, not confirmed spending.