US midterms: Democrats lead polls as Republicans defend slim House majority
The gist
Democrats lead Republicans 51.5% to 43.1% in the RealClearPolling average two days before the US midterms.
Republicans hold the House 219–214, so a four-seat Democratic net gain flips control.
How it unfolded
- Oct 26, 2026Al Jazeera publishes a visual explainer noting all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are being contested, including special elections in Florida and Ohio to fill seats vacated by Marco Rubio and JD Vance.
- Oct 27, 2026A Marist Poll (NPR/PBS News/Marist, interviews October 19–20, margin of error +/- 3.8 points) shows Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 44% among likely voters, with Trump approval at 40%.
- Oct 30, 2026The United States Studies Centre, an Australian research institution, publishes a guide noting Republicans hold the tightest House majority in almost a century (219–214) and Democrats need a net gain of four seats.